For Graduates and parents · 9 min read · Data roundup
Class of 2026 job market: what the data says for new grads
Published September 24, 2026 · Updated September 24, 2026 · Career First Nexus
Short answer
It is a slower market for new grads, not a closed one. The New York Fed puts recent-graduate unemployment at about 5.6% in 2026:Q2—above the 4.1% rate for all workers—and 42% of recent grads work in jobs that don’t typically require a degree. Employers still projected a 5.6% increase in Class of 2026 hiring (NACE), and more of that recruiting now happens in the spring. Plan for a search measured in months, target roles that actually use your degree, and keep a steady weekly rhythm.
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The numbers at a glance
- Recent-grad unemployment: about 5.6% (ages 22–27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher, 2026:Q2). All workers: 4.1%. All college grads: 2.9%. — New York Fed
- Recent-grad underemployment: about 42% — the share working in jobs that typically don’t require a degree (2026:Q2). — New York Fed
- Median pay: $60,000 for full-time recent grads with a bachelor’s degree only, vs. $40,000 for high-school-only workers the same age (2025, in 2025 dollars). — New York Fed
- Employers projected a 5.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026, and a plurality (45%) rated the market “fair.” — NACE Job Outlook 2026 Spring Update
- The first months are the hardest: among 20- to 29-year-olds who earned a bachelor’s degree between January and October 2024, the unemployment rate was 15.3% that October. — BLS
Data dates matter here. The New York Fed’s unemployment and underemployment figures come from its August 6, 2026 update (2026:Q2 data). Its pay and by-major figures come from the February 4, 2026 update; the major table uses 2024 American Community Survey data. The NACE figures come from a survey fielded February 12 – March 17, 2026. The BLS figures are from the most recent edition of its annual recent-graduates release (October 2024 data, published April 22, 2025).
Finding 1: New grads face higher unemployment than workers overall
| Group (New York Fed definitions) | Q2 2019 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent college grads (ages 22–27) | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% |
| All college grads (ages 22–65) | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| All workers (ages 16–65) | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| Young workers without a degree (ages 22–27) | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% |
April–June averages of the New York Fed’s monthly, seasonally adjusted series (each month is itself a three-month moving average). The New York Fed notes that October 2025 results are estimated because of missing data.
In the New York Fed series, recent graduates’ unemployment rate has been above the rate for all workers in every month since the start of 2021. From 1990 through 2017, that happened in only a handful of months. A degree still helps over a career—look at the 2.9% rate for all college grads—but the entry point is crowded.
What it means for your search:
- Budget for months, not weeks. A slow start is the market, not a verdict on you. Set a weekly target you can sustain instead of a burst you’ll abandon.
- Measure your funnel. Track applications, replies, interviews, and follow-ups so you can tell whether the problem is volume, targeting, or your résumé. (If you want a structure for this, see how many jobs a new grad should apply to per week.)
- Compare yourself to the right baseline. Your older cousin’s job market is not your job market.
Finding 2: About 4 in 10 recent grads are underemployed
The New York Fed counts a graduate as underemployed when they work in a job that typically doesn’t require a bachelor’s degree (based on O*NET survey data). For recent grads that rate was about 42% in 2026:Q2, compared with about 34% for all college graduates.
The New York Fed also points out that many underemployed graduates work in “non-college” jobs that are fairly skilled and well paid, and move into better roles after gaining experience.
What it means for your search:
- Target titles that actually require your degree. Build your list from job descriptions, not company names. If a posting doesn’t use what you studied or can prove, it probably belongs on a “bridge” list, not your main list.
- A bridge job is a strategy with a review date. If you take one, keep a smaller weekly application habit going and decide in advance when you’ll reassess.
- Parents: a first job that doesn’t need a degree is common right now. The useful question is “what’s the plan to move up from here?”—not “why aren’t you using your degree?” Our 90-day parent plan covers how to have that conversation.
Finding 3: The first months after graduation are the steepest
The BLS’s annual recent-graduates release looks at people surveyed just months after finishing. Among 20- to 29-year-olds who earned a bachelor’s degree between January and October 2024:
- 69.6% were employed in October 2024.
- The unemployment rate was 15.3%.
- 25.2% were enrolled in school, and those enrolled were much less likely to be employed (46.1%) than those who were not (77.5%).
Those rates are far higher than the New York Fed’s figure for all recent grads aged 22–27. That fits the idea that the gap is widest right after graduation—which is exactly when most new grads, and their parents, start to panic.
What it means for your search:
- If you’re a few months out without an offer, you’re not an outlier. Keep the process going; don’t rebuild your whole plan every week.
- Protect the routine. A short daily block (targeting, one or two tailored applications, follow-ups) beats occasional marathon sessions.
Finding 4: Employers still plan to hire—and more of it happens in spring
NACE’s Job Outlook 2026 Spring Update (185 employer respondents) found:
- Employers projected a 5.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026.
- A plurality of employers—45%—rated the job market for Class of 2026 graduates as “fair.”
- 37% of full-time recruiting now happens in the spring (27% for interns). Before the pandemic, NACE says nearly three-quarters of full-time recruiting was done in the fall.
- Nearly 70% of employers say they use skills-based hiring. Their top advice for demonstrating skills: come ready with examples of times you used your skills to solve problems.
- Nearly all respondents called U.S.-based internships valuable.
What it means for your search:
- Hiring doesn’t stop at graduation. If you missed fall recruiting, you didn’t miss the year. Keep applying through summer and fall.
- Prepare proof, not adjectives. Write three to five short stories (situation, what you did, result) from classes, jobs, clubs, or internships, and rehearse them out loud before interviews.
- Put internships, on-campus jobs, and projects on page one of your résumé, with concrete results. See our new-grad résumé example for an ATS-safe layout.
Finding 5: The degree still pays
In the New York Fed’s wage data for 2025 (full-time workers ages 22–27, in 2025 dollars), recent grads with a bachelor’s degree only earned a median of $60,000, vs. $40,000 for peers with only a high school diploma. The middle half of recent grads earned between $45,000 (25th percentile) and $85,000 (75th percentile). The New York Fed notes that some of that gap could reflect differences in aptitude between graduates and non-graduates.
What it means for your search: a slow first search doesn’t mean the degree was a mistake. It means the first job takes more deliberate targeting than it used to.
Finding 6: Your major changes the picture
The New York Fed’s outcomes-by-major table (2024 data) shows how different the entry point can look:
- Low underemployment: nursing (12.8%), aerospace engineering (14.7%), civil engineering (15.6%), and computer engineering (15.8%).
- High underemployment: criminal justice (65.8%), performing arts (63.9%), fine arts (58.9%), and leisure and hospitality (58.1%).
- Higher unemployment doesn’t always mean weaker outcomes. Computer science had 7.0% unemployment but only 19.1% underemployment and a $87,000 early-career median wage. Competition for the first role is the hard part there.
What it means for your search:
- High-underemployment major? Your biggest risk is landing in a job that doesn’t use your degree. Aim for specific “college-job” titles (analyst, coordinator, specialist, associate) and show skill evidence employers can check.
- High-unemployment, low-underemployment major? Your biggest risk is time. Widen the set of employer types (government, healthcare, finance, manufacturing, not just tech brands) and track your follow-ups.
- Look at the graduate-degree column before deciding on grad school. It shows how common advanced degrees are among people with your bachelor’s, not whether you need one right now.
Outcomes by major (New York Fed, 2024 data)
Unemployment and underemployment rates are for recent college graduates (ages 22–27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher). Median wages are for full-time workers with a bachelor’s degree only; early career is ages 22–27 and mid-career is ages 35–45. Graduate-degree share is for ages 25–65 with a bachelor’s degree or higher. All figures exclude people currently enrolled in school. Source: New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, using U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data (IPUMS); released February 4, 2026.
| Major | Unemployment rate | Underemployment rate | Median wage, early career | Median wage, mid-career | Share with graduate degree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All majors (overall) | 4.2% | 39.4% | $58,000 | $87,000 | 39.3% |
| Agriculture | 1.4% | 57.1% | $56,000 | $80,000 | 22.5% |
| Animal and Plant Sciences | 2.5% | 53.5% | $46,600 | $79,000 | 36.6% |
| Environmental Studies | 6.3% | 50.5% | $50,000 | $80,000 | 31.9% |
| Architecture | 6.8% | 25.7% | $60,000 | $91,000 | 40.8% |
| Ethnic Studies | 4.9% | 49.6% | $52,000 | $90,000 | 51.2% |
| Communications | 3.9% | 53.0% | $52,000 | $88,000 | 24.7% |
| Journalism | 2.3% | 43.3% | $49,000 | $87,000 | 26.3% |
| Mass Media | 5.2% | 52.1% | $50,000 | $80,000 | 19.3% |
| Advertising and Public Relations | 5.7% | 38.1% | $60,000 | $92,000 | 22.8% |
| Information Systems & Management | 6.0% | 25.6% | $67,000 | $100,000 | 27.9% |
| Computer Science | 7.0% | 19.1% | $87,000 | $120,000 | 32.7% |
| General Education | 2.6% | 28.1% | $45,000 | $56,000 | 51.7% |
| Early Childhood Education | 6.6% | 22.3% | $45,000 | $52,000 | 43.8% |
| Elementary Education | 1.2% | 16.2% | $45,000 | $55,000 | 50.6% |
| Secondary Education | 2.1% | 21.7% | $45,300 | $62,000 | 52.7% |
| Special Education | 0.7% | 16.0% | $46,000 | $56,000 | 61.1% |
| Miscellaneous Education | 1.1% | 24.5% | $48,000 | $60,000 | 59.9% |
| General Engineering | 4.5% | 31.1% | $75,000 | $105,000 | 37.1% |
| Aerospace Engineering | 2.2% | 14.7% | $85,000 | $130,000 | 45.5% |
| Chemical Engineering | 4.7% | 17.9% | $85,000 | $135,000 | 48.1% |
| Civil Engineering | 2.3% | 15.6% | $75,000 | $115,000 | 37.1% |
| Computer Engineering | 7.8% | 15.8% | $90,000 | $131,000 | 39.4% |
| Electrical Engineering | 3.2% | 21.1% | $82,000 | $123,000 | 47.7% |
| Industrial Engineering | 4.2% | 31.7% | $83,000 | $100,000 | 40.6% |
| Mechanical Engineering | 4.4% | 20.1% | $80,000 | $120,000 | 39.1% |
| Miscellaneous Engineering | 3.7% | 26.4% | $75,000 | $105,000 | 46.3% |
| Foreign Language | 1.6% | 54.0% | $48,000 | $77,000 | 53.1% |
| Family and Consumer Sciences | 4.3% | 45.6% | $48,000 | $65,000 | 35.7% |
| English Language | 6.1% | 48.5% | $48,000 | $76,000 | 46.2% |
| Liberal Arts | 3.8% | 54.6% | $45,000 | $75,000 | 30.9% |
| Biology | 4.3% | 51.1% | $45,000 | $83,000 | 64.0% |
| Biochemistry | 2.7% | 42.0% | $52,000 | $100,000 | 71.9% |
| Miscellaneous Biological Science | 4.4% | 46.9% | $46,000 | $80,000 | 59.5% |
| Mathematics | 5.8% | 26.2% | $70,000 | $100,000 | 51.3% |
| Interdisciplinary Studies | 3.9% | 45.2% | $52,000 | $80,000 | 40.4% |
| Nutrition Sciences | 4.5% | 48.3% | $50,000 | $70,000 | 50.6% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 2.7% | 58.1% | $45,000 | $75,000 | 36.1% |
| Philosophy | 5.1% | 47.1% | $52,000 | $80,000 | 56.9% |
| Theology and Religion | 3.1% | 47.5% | $41,600 | $66,000 | 46.4% |
| Chemistry | 4.3% | 42.8% | $50,000 | $86,000 | 67.5% |
| Earth Sciences | 3.8% | 31.4% | $50,000 | $75,000 | 45.6% |
| Physics | 6.6% | 29.1% | $67,000 | $105,000 | 67.3% |
| Miscellaneous Physical Sciences | 2.5% | 22.5% | $60,000 | $81,000 | 54.0% |
| Psychology | 5.0% | 48.3% | $45,000 | $72,000 | 51.9% |
| Criminal Justice | 3.6% | 65.8% | $50,000 | $80,000 | 24.6% |
| Public Policy and Law | 2.2% | 45.5% | $55,000 | $80,000 | 47.0% |
| Social Services | 1.9% | 30.1% | $43,000 | $60,000 | 53.8% |
| Anthropology | 7.9% | 55.3% | $45,000 | $65,000 | 48.2% |
| Economics | 3.5% | 33.1% | $72,000 | $115,000 | 41.6% |
| Geography | 1.6% | 43.0% | $50,000 | $88,000 | 34.7% |
| Political Science | 4.5% | 48.7% | $52,000 | $100,000 | 52.7% |
| Sociology | 4.6% | 52.0% | $49,900 | $79,000 | 39.1% |
| General Social Sciences | 2.3% | 38.0% | $45,200 | $75,000 | 39.3% |
| Construction Services | 2.2% | 17.9% | $75,000 | $120,000 | 12.2% |
| Art History | 6.7% | 45.3% | $45,000 | $91,000 | 47.8% |
| Fine Arts | 7.7% | 58.9% | $45,000 | $72,000 | 22.5% |
| Performing Arts | 7.0% | 63.9% | $44,000 | $75,000 | 38.4% |
| Commercial Art & Graphic Design | 5.7% | 37.1% | $50,000 | $80,000 | 13.0% |
| Health Services | 3.8% | 45.1% | $50,000 | $67,000 | 52.9% |
| Medical Technicians | 6.2% | 47.0% | $62,000 | $80,000 | 24.7% |
| Nursing | 2.1% | 12.8% | $70,000 | $87,000 | 30.3% |
| Pharmacy | 5.6% | 30.5% | $40,000 | $85,000 | 67.4% |
| Treatment Therapy | 2.6% | 39.1% | $50,000 | $70,000 | 53.4% |
| General Business | 4.3% | 50.4% | $60,000 | $90,000 | 25.3% |
| Accounting | 2.6% | 21.2% | $68,000 | $97,000 | 33.7% |
| Business Management | 3.8% | 52.6% | $56,000 | $82,000 | 25.3% |
| Business Analytics | 5.0% | 28.7% | $72,000 | $109,000 | 26.7% |
| Marketing | 4.4% | 49.3% | $60,000 | $100,000 | 19.7% |
| Finance | 2.8% | 27.8% | $70,000 | $112,000 | 31.5% |
| International Affairs | 6.1% | 45.2% | $64,000 | $90,000 | 46.3% |
| History | 4.3% | 50.1% | $47,500 | $80,000 | 51.4% |
| Engineering Technologies | 1.7% | 44.4% | $65,000 | $104,000 | 27.9% |
| Miscellaneous Technologies | 3.6% | 49.0% | $54,000 | $96,000 | 19.5% |
Turn the data into a daily plan
Career First Nexus is a free job-search app for recent U.S. college grads: a 40-day day-by-day plan, ATS-safe résumé templates, an application tracker, interview drills, and a free read-only parent view with weekly check-in scripts. A free account is full access, not a trial, and needs no card.
A weekly plan that fits this market
- Pick 2–3 target titles that use your degree, based on what postings actually ask for.
- Make your résumé ATS-readable with one clean column, standard headings, and results in numbers where you have them.
- Apply steadily and tailor every application. A smaller number of tailored applications you follow up on beats a pile of one-click applies.
- Follow up about a week after applying and within 24 hours after interviews.
- Rehearse your skill stories before every interview.
- Review once a week (replies, interviews, what to change) and, if a parent is helping, keep that check-in short and on a schedule.
People also ask
- What is the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in 2026?
- About 5.6% in the second quarter of 2026 for graduates ages 22–27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher, according to the New York Fed’s August 6, 2026 update. That compares with about 4.1% for all workers.
- What does underemployed mean for college grads?
- The New York Fed counts a graduate as underemployed when they work in a job that typically doesn’t require a bachelor’s degree. About 42% of recent grads were underemployed in 2026:Q2.
- Are employers hiring the Class of 2026?
- Yes. In NACE’s Job Outlook 2026 Spring Update, employers projected a 5.6% increase in Class of 2026 hiring, and 37% of full-time recruiting now happens in the spring, so hiring continues after graduation.
- Which majors have the lowest underemployment?
- In the New York Fed’s 2024 data, nursing (12.8%), aerospace engineering (14.7%), civil engineering (15.6%), and computer engineering (15.8%) had the lowest underemployment rates for recent grads.
The system behind these guides
Start the free 40-day plan today: daily tasks, an application and follow-up tracker, interview drills, and streaks to keep momentum. Parents get a free read-only view plus weekly check-in scripts. Full access, no card required.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (Aug 6, 2026 update with 2026:Q2 data; wages and majors from Feb 4, 2026 update)
- NACE, Job Outlook 2026 Spring Update (April 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Enrollment and Work Activity of Recent High School and College Graduates, 2024 (Apr 22, 2025)
All figures are national U.S. estimates from the sources above, as published on the dates shown. Quarterly averages are simple averages of the New York Fed’s published monthly series. Wages are medians, not offers; your results will vary by role, location, and timing. Citing this page? Please link to https://careerfirstnexus.com/blog/class-of-2026-job-market-data.